Sentate Majority?

As this is the first full week I've had in New York since August, it's finally time to sit back, get some work done and check in on the state of the world.

Daily Kos caught my eye this morning, reporting that "One Republican strategist close to the White House gave this forecast: "We're going to lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island. That's three. Virginia, I think we hold. Tennessee, I think we hold. I'm less certain we're going to hold Missouri and I'm least certain we hold Montana. But to take control, Democrats have to win three of those four, and that's unlikely."

Sadly, I tend to agree. I've already gone and done what I can for Claire McCaskilland Harold Ford (and Deval Patrick who seems to have the Mass. governor's race all but sown up) but I'm still a pessimist about actually getting control of the Senate. That being said, I'd be so very very happy if it happened.

Given that we're in the home stretch, you might be amused (as I have been) by the Intrade - 2006 Mid Term Elections FuturesTrading (not to mention the futures on the indictment of Scooter Libby). Right now Intrade puts the chances of the democrats taking the house at 68 percent and taking senate at 23 percent. The long odds for big bettors is GOP house Democratic Senate (6%). And for those optimists who think we'll take 'em both, contracts for Democratic control of both houses are right about 25.

Meanwhile, let's keep hoping for that one extra win.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Virginia isn't looking so bad all of the sudden; Senator "Macawitz" Allen is actually behind Webb in a couple of polls.

I'd bet my money on a 50-50 split (with Cheney breaking it of course), but I'll be crossing my fingers for +6.