Here's a nice piece about howKarl Rove got it all wrong.
The no longer laughing Mr. Rove
As Newsweek reports it... "Rove's miscalculations began well before election night. The polls and pundits pointed to a Democratic sweep, but Rove dismissed them all. In public, he predicted outright victory... Rove believed his 'metrics' were far superior to plain old polls...Rove thought the polls were obsolete because they relied on home telephones in an age of do-not-call lists and cell phones. Based on his models, he forecast a loss of 12 to 14 seats in the House, enough to hang on to the majority. Rove placed so much faith in his figures that, after the elections, he planned to convene a panel of Republican political scientists in order to study just how wrong the polls were"
Oops. My bad.